Rest easy, Ottawa and Vancouver.
Over the past decade, an average of three NHL teams per season have gone on to miss the Stanley Cup playoffs after holding a spot on American Thanksgiving.
The Senators and Canucks won’t be those teams this season, according to a predictive model from Halifax-based mathematician Micah Blake McCurdy, who runs HockeyViz.com.
According to McCurdy’s model, nicknamed “Oscar,” Pittsburgh and Detroit are the only two current teams situated in playoff position predicted to fall out. The numbers say will be replaced by New Jersey and Tampa Bay.
McCurdy’s math sees the Western Conference shaping up almost exactly as it is currently setup on Thursday, the day Americans plan to nap and gobble turkey. That’s good news for the Canucks, who would make for three Canadian playoff teams one year after five qualified.
The Leafs are currently projected to finish in seventh place in the Atlantic with 83 points, marking a 15-point improvement under Mike Babcock. With 80 points apiece, Calgary and Edmonton were both lottery-bound in Thursday’s projections.
No, McCurdy doesn’t “hate” your team if they aren’t projected to make the playoffs. His projections are not subjective.
McCurdy’s model simulates the remaining schedule for all 30 teams based on a lot of data: recent 5-on-5 shot generation and suppression, lifetime goaltending save percentages, followed by recent team shooting percentages, then special teams shot generation and suppression. Each are weighted differently. A detailed explanation of the formula is available here.
The projections shift based on the most recent 25 games worth of recent data. In the case of this season, when no team has reached 25 games yet, McCurdy backfills with data from last season to paint a fuller picture.
In other words: this projection actually has substance behind it, rather than saying, “the Penguins are on-pace for 102 points and are likely to qualify.”
(Fun fact: McCurdy dubbed the model “Oscar” as a leftover baby name after the birth of his son, Edmund, who is 15 months old. He is toying with other predictive models and needed names to keep them all straight.)
Two other teams with high expectations – Anaheim and Winnipeg – are also projected to miss the playoffs, according to McCurdy. TSN’s consensus Stanley Cup winner, the Ducks, dug themselves an early hole with an abysmal October. Their only hope is a capitalizing on a mediocre Pacific division.
In the last two seasons, since the NHL instituted the current playoff format with two wild cards from each conference, five teams that were out of the playoffs on this day rallied to make the playoffs: Columbus, Dallas and Philadelphia in 2013-14, and Washington and Minnesota in 2014-15.
According to Thursday’s numbers, the league-leading Canadiens are predicted to win the President’s Trophy narrowly over Washington and Dallas.
Absent of obvious tanking, Buffalo (78), Edmonton (80), Philadelphia (80), Colorado (80) and Calgary (80) are all projected to finish within three points of each other in the Auston Matthews sweepstakes. That would give the Sabres the best odds to land the No. 1 overall pick for the second spring in a row.
We’re a long way from April, to be sure. There are 901 games to be played. But McCurdy gives us at least a peek where the NHL might be heading over the next five months.
Source: tsn.ca